Like last year, James Bond pic 'No Time to Die' might lead a slew of delays from studios as insiders strategize on how long it will take for box office to be revived.
Hollywood executives in charge of the release calendar couldn’t have imagined they’d be facing another great migration in 2021 as the COVID-19 crisis keeps up. The feeling of deja vu is demoralizing as they look to rearrange their spring and early summer slates.
Almost a year ago, MGM surprised its rivals when pushing James Bond pic No Time to Die from April to November. Soon, though, all the studios followed suit before most cinemas shut down March 20 in the U.S. Hollywood and cinema owners assumed moviegoing would resume in fall 2020. That wasn’t to be. In the case of No Time to Die, it was subsequently pushed to April 2, but not even that date will hold, sources tell The Hollywood Reporter.
The only question left is whether MGM will relocate the 007 tentpole to October, December or November. The studio declined to comment. “I think everything substantive between now and Top Gun: Maverick in early July will move. It’s a mess,” predicts one veteran studio executive.
That group of films includes Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II (April 23), Disney’s Black Widow (May 7) and Universal’s Fast & Furious installment F9 (May 28), all of which were originally supposed to bow in 2020. There’s also Sony’s Venom sequel, which is set to open June 25, a week before Top Gun and Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru unfurl in theaters July 2 in advance of the Fourth of July corridor.
During the pandemic, Universal pivoted to releasing its movies early on premium VOD in order to keep the product pipeline, but insiders say theaters need to be open around the globe for films such as F9 and Minions.
“Lest anyone thought that the transition from 2020 into 2021 would magically fix the issues that perplexed the industry for the past almost 12 months, the reality is that the many of the very same market forces are still in play and will continue to inform the strategic decisions of studios and creatives alike,” says Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. “That said, there is hope for a recovery for the theatrical movie biz on the horizon, but of course that future is in constant flux.”
Adds Eric Handler of MKM Partners, “The way I’m thinking about the year, the first quarter will be down as much as 90 percent.” Recent titles that have fled the January-March space include Sony’s Morbius and Warner Bros.’ The Many Saints of Newark, the studio’s Sopranos prequel.
One studio taking a different approach is Warners, which recently moved up Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong from May 21 to March 26. That’s likely because the studio wants to keep the momentum going for its new initiative to debut its 2021 slate directly on HBO Max and in cinemas that are open.
Handler believes the second quarter of 2020 will bring some improvement, but revenue will still be 30 percent to 40 percent of normal if comparing to a three-year average (2016-19). He notes: “It depends upon on how fast we get to a peak with infections. If they can immunize a million people a day, things will start accelerating.”
This story first appeared in the Jan. 20 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
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January 20, 2021 at 06:12AM
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Release Date Deja Vu: Studio Tentpoles Are on the Move Again - Hollywood Reporter
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