When Netflix canceled “Jupiter’s Legacy” just a few weeks after the debut of its first season, the company was admitting failure on one of its most ambitious projects of the past couple years.
“Jupiter’s Legacy” was the first project that came out of Millarworld, the comic book publisher Netflix acquired in 2017. Millarworld is supposed to create its own world of comic book TV shows and movies for the streaming service. Instead, it delivered a show that was panned by critics and seemingly ignored by viewers.
But then Nielsen announced “Jupiter’s Legacy” had been one of the most popular Netflix shows in the U.S. for the first couple weeks after its debut. If the show was so popular, why was Netflix canceling it?
We can all speculate. Viewership fell off after the first two weeks. Nielsen only measures the U.S., while most of Netflix’s customers live abroad. Nielsen only measures time spent viewing, not any of the other metrics Netflix considers. But we don’t know for sure. Only Netflix knows just how popular its show are.
And therein lies one of the most confounding dilemmas of modern media. We are entering a world where it is getting harder and harder to determine what is popular, and what is not.
This is not new or unique to Netflix, which is more transparent about viewership than Disney+, Hulu, Amazon, HBO Max, Peacock or Paramount+. But the proliferation of streaming services and the degradation of audiences in more traditional mediums is making it worse.
It wasn’t very long ago that we used to have reliable reporting of how pop culture performed as a business. Studios reported weekly box office grosses. TV networks reported daily ratings. Record labels reported weekly album sales. While the music business is still relatively transparent (though only in this one respect), everything else is getting murkier.
To fill this vacuum, we rely on third party data sources like Parrot Analytics (for audience “demand”), Antenna (for user sign-ups and churn) and Nielsen (for viewership). I find these services are all directionally accurate and thus quite useful — you will find a Parrot chart down below -- but they are all imprecise.
I’ve argued about measurement with executives at almost every media company, many of whom say journalists are clinging to antiquated notions of how to measure success. Who cares about the viewership of an individual title when Netflix isn’t selling ads? Why obsess over falling live ratings when everyone is watching on-demand? We can see what’s popular based on what is renewed (or not), and judge the overall strategy based on quarterly subscriber growth.
It’s true that many reporters are using the wrong metrics. Some have parroted the argument that Warner Bros. is losing vast sums of money by releasing its movies on HBO Max at the same time they hit theaters. That may be true, but most of those estimates are based on how those movies do at the box office.
WarnerMedia is releasing its movies this way to boost subscriptions for HBO Max. There’s an easy way to know if this is working. WarnerMedia could tell us how many customers signed up for HBO Max thanks to each movie. Unfortunately, they don’t do that. Nobody releases data on how many customers signed up in a given weekend. Comcast doesn't even say how many are paying for Peacock in total.
Traditional media companies that do report clear numbers like Disney are decreasing their transparency. Disney used to have to take write-downs on big movies that failed at the box office. Now it can drop “Mulan” on Disney+ and provide almost no context as to how it is doing.
This opacity allows companies to claim certain records or successes without providing substantive data. Amazon and Hulu will announce movies are their most-watched original films yet – without saying what that means.
Netflix will announce how many people watched 2 minutes of a show, even thought that’s not the metric they consider most important for their own business. They value average view share and completion rate. They care if it draws in new customers, or stops existing ones from canceling. We don’t get to see any of that information.
This makes it harder for anyone outside the company — investors, reporters and competitors — to judge how a company is spending its money.
It’s also tough on the fans and creators of these shows. Their work gets canceled and it’s not clear to them why. Their agents want to negotiate a new deal and they don’t have complete information. It’s not just a problem with failures either. When a streaming service ends a popular show like “Ozark,” is that because the creators wanted it or because it no longer serves its needs?
This has led to mistaken theories. Hollywood folks all joke about the third season curse at Netflix because the streaming service cancels so many shows after their second season. That criticism isn’t supported by the data. Netflix cancels shows at similar rates to major broadcast networks. It’s just working at a higher volume than those networks, so it cancels more shows.
What would make this theory go away? More transparency.
Netflix has embraced a new Nielsen measurement that ranks different streaming services based on their share of viewing, but this tells us nothing about specific titles. We know “Bridgerton” is a hit. For now, that will have to be enough. – Lucas Shaw
The best of Screentime (and other stuff)
Can the kings of cable learn to stream?
If you had to list your favorite streaming services, where would you rank Peacock and Paramount+?
Based on subscribers, they are somewhere between sixth and eight. Based on awards, they aren’t yet in the conversation. Their owners, Comcast for Peacock and ViacomCBS for Paramount+, know they have work to do. They just figured out what to do about it.
ViacomCBS has been investing in streaming for longer than almost any legacy media company. But it is resource-constrained. The company is worth about 12% of Netflix and 8% of Disney. It also relies on traditional cable networks for more than 75% of its profit.
Earlier this week, the company announced a restructuring that was supposed to stress its focus on Paramount+. It seemed to confuse everyone more.
Comcast has plenty of money. It is worth more than Netflix, and generates a ton of cash selling people internet and cable. But it is still figuring out just how much it wants to invest in Peacock. The company was the subject of a thorough Wall Street Journal profile that sprinkled in some news, along with some recycled material.
- Comcast has considered buying ViacomCBS and Roku. Comcast is also planning a competitor to Roku.
- Comcast plans to pull Universal’s movies from HBO Max and put them on Peacock. ( Like we said they would.)
- Comcast plans to pull its shows from Hulu.
What does all this mean? Comcast is still casting about for answers.
The top streaming service is… Starz?
Starz shows generate the most demand per title, according to a new study from Parrot Analytics. Parrot says this is because Starz has targeted underrepresented communities. You could also argue this is because Starz makes so few shows. (Netflix and Amazon, the two largest streaming services, have the lowest demand per title.)
The top movie in the world is…
“9.” The film grossed $70 million in North America over the weekend, and eclipsed $400 million worldwide.
Industry executives view the movie as a barometer for the state of the movie business. How should we judge the results? The movie is on track to gross less than the previous installment in the “Fast and Furious” franchise. But it’s also setting records for a movie during the pandemic. Most of the movie reporters are treating it as a success.
The No. 1 song in the world is…
Olivia Rodrigo’s “good 4 u” if you trust Spotify, BTS’s “Butter” if you use YouTube and Rauw Alejandro’s “Todo de Ti” if you mix them together.
Kenya Barris disses Netflix
The co-creator of “Blackish” said he asked out of his deal with Netflix because he felt stifled at the company. Barris was one of the biggest TV writers to sign an exclusive deal with Netflix a few years ago, along with Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy.
These comments aren’t a huge surprise. Netflix’s embrace of more commercial programming is apparent to anyone who opens the app. All of these writers joined Netflix to escape the strictures of network TV, only to discover Netflix wanted similarly broad programming.
The surprise is that he said them. Most creative people are reticent to criticize Netflix since it’s still one of the biggest spenders in town. And Netflix chief Ted Sarandos has made talent relations a huge focus. The company is very sensitive to any suggestion that it’s not talent-friendly.
(It’s also worth noting that Barris’s representatives have now extricated him from two different deals before they were over.)
Deals, deals, deals
- Snap secured a deal with Universal Music Group, bringing songs from the world’s largest music company onto the app.
- Endeavor leaders Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro quit the board of Live Nation after the Department of Justice expressed concerns about them sitting on the board of competing companies.
- A young whipper snapper named Steven Spielberg signed a deal to produce movies for Netflix.
Weekly playlist
Sitting in a New York bar Thursday night, I heard a beat I couldn’t get out of my head and a voice that sounded like Big Boi from Outkast. If that sounds good to you, check out Texas rapper Tobe Nwigwe.
Related: New York is back.
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Hollywood is Disguising the Results of Its TV Shows and Movies - Bloomberg
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